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Welcome back, today is Tuesday, August eleventh, and we begin with The Business of Fashion on luxury's week of results.
The Business of Fashion makes the case that the next few days give the trade its cleanest read yet on who is actually pulling ahead in luxury. LVMH, Kering, Hermès and Prada all report inside one week, and that briefing frames the set as a rare like for like test, taken against what it describes as a stubbornly choppy environment. Four houses, one calendar, one demand backdrop, which is what makes the comparison unusually usable for anyone benchmarking their own category. Industry reaction converges less on fashion than on jewellery as the tell. Practitioners note hard luxury is posting the strongest growth across several competing groups at once, and some read that as buyers paying for intrinsic material value while logo led pricing power keeps eroding. A more contrarian thread treats recent price cuts as evidence the sector overshot on pricing rather than that demand collapsed, and points to the split between still active affluent buyers and a weak aspirational middle as the thing to watch in the numbers.
Also today, Shein has put a price on itself. The International Business Times Singapore edition reports the retailer is targeting thirty to forty billion dollars for its Hong Kong listing, citing people familiar with the plans who say the offering could launch as early as mid August, with investor meetings already under way. Against the ninety eight point two billion dollar private mark of two thousand twenty two, that is roughly a third of the peak, and it sets the public market price on the fast fashion growth story. Per that reporting, US revenue fell fourteen point three percent year on year in the first quarter after Washington removed the de minimis exemption on low value parcels. The same account puts annual profit at two point zero six billion dollars in two thousand twenty five, down from three point three seven billion, even as revenue rose eight percent. Industry reaction fixes less on the valuation cut than on a disclosure in the filing, an active Federal Trade Commission consumer protection investigation that the company itself flags as potentially material, which some read as the more durable overhang given earlier listing attempts in New York and London stalled on regulatory friction.
Staying with that listing. Following our earlier report on The Business of Fashion's argument that Shein would struggle to justify a valuation of up to fifty billion dollars, the shape of the reset is now visible on the cap table. Bloomberg and Reuters reported on August fourth that Shein is weighing a cost reset for backers in its pre Series D, Series D and Series D plus rounds, according to Tech Times, a blend of cash and additional Class B shares that would cut their effective cost basis to about forty billion dollars. That reporting says no final decisions have been made and any payment depends on where the deal prices. Shein did not respond to requests for comment. The mechanics run straight through the float, because those new Class B shares go to pre IPO holders rather than the public book. The same account puts first quarter operating margin at two point nine percent, down from three point nine a year earlier. Industry reaction reads the make good as the real signal, with a recurring view that guaranteeing late backers a return implies the company expects to price well below what they paid.
Separately, one hundred billion dollars is moving back the other way, and there is now a fight over where it lands. WWD's Sourcing Journal reports the Trump administration has reached one hundred billion dollars in tariff refunds, and that an Illinois lawmaker is pressing for consumer paybacks. Per that report, published August sixth, some lawmakers have taken this up on behalf of their constituents, asking the federal government to return the money to constituents directly. For importers who have already booked those recoveries into their own plans, that is a claim on funds many brands are counting as theirs. Reaction in the trade leans on a pass through argument. Refunds flow to importers while tariff era retail prices have largely stayed put, and some frame the absence of rollbacks or rebates as what regulators should press on next. A more operational note of skepticism is that the pipeline itself may drag, with claims filed far exceeding what has been paid out, and some expecting processing to stretch on for years.
Now, a few more headlines moving the trade today. The Lyst Index for the second quarter kept Chanel on top and lifted Inditex's Massimo Dutti eight places into the top ten on a forty three percent demand increase, per FashionNetwork. And finally, Canada Goose beat first quarter revenue expectations as demand held up, though The Business of Fashion notes new US tariffs on Canadian goods could affect future earnings.